Every week we do not see the hostages released, we will see a one kilometer deep strip of Gaza territory annexed to Israel. Opinion.
In recent weeks, Israel has intensified its military operations in Gaza in the hope of securing the release of hostages held by Hamas. Although the Israeli public is united behind the goal of bringing these hostages home, it is time to admit an uncomfortable truth: military incursions alone will not drive Hamas to make meaningful concessions. Giving in to Hamas demands is not an option either.
Israeli firepower and operational skill will not change Hamas’s ideological DNA. For Hamas, battlefield losses are not deterrents but points of pride. The organization regards its fallen fighters as shuhada — martyrs destined for eternal glory. In fact, the more its ranks are thinned by IDF operations, the more it doubles down on its narrative of holy struggle and sacrifice.
Furthermore, Hamas views every image of destruction in Gaza as a public relations asset. Scenes of rubble and civilian suffering are weaponized to inflame anti-Israel sentiment and rally international pressure against the Jewish state. These dynamics make conventional military pressure, even when tactically successful, strategically ineffective.
In this context, Defense Minister Israel Katz’s announcement that Israel intends to impose a permanent occupation of Gaza is a significant step. But for such a policy to have any effect on Hamas’s decision-making calculus, it must be translated into immediate, concrete, and escalating consequences.
Specifically, Israel should issue an unambiguous ultimatum: if Hamas fails to release the hostages, Israel will not only continue its military campaign, but it will also annex a one-kilometer-deep strip of land along the northern Gaza border for every week that passes without compliance. This policy would represent a shift from symbolic pressure to strategic loss — the kind of loss Hamas cannot ignore.
Why is this approach more likely to succeed? Because the only losses that Hamas — and indeed most of Israel’s regional adversaries — treat as truly irreversible are territorial. Rockets can be rebuilt. Mujahideen can be re-recruited. But land, once lost and incorporated into Israel with the backing of a major ally like the United States, is gone forever. This is a psychological and political blow no Islamic movement can market as martyrdom or resistance.
The current U.S. administration is supportive of Israel’s right to self-defense. If Israel presents this policy as a rational, humane alternative to endless bloodshed — one that rewards cooperation and punishes intransigence — it stands a good chance of gaining American support.
Moreover, this approach would save lives. Rather than launching high-risk rescue missions or releasing hundreds of dangerous terrorists in prisoner swaps, Israel would simply create a clear and predictable structure: release hostages, and land is preserved; refuse, and land is annexed. The ball is in Hamas’s court.
This tactic is not about revenge or expansionism. It is about restoring the value of Israeli life in the eyes of an enemy that currently sees it as expendable. It is about introducing a strategic cost to hostage-taking that cannot be spun into propaganda or painted as victory. Most importantly, it is about bringing Israeli hostages home with fewer sacrifices than any other option on the table.
Rafael Castro is a Yale- and Hebrew University-educated independent political analyst. An Italian Noahide, Rafael can be reached at rafaelcastro78@gmail.com
