Political analyst Amit Segal tells Ben Shapiro the US has, for the first time, adopted Israel’s Begin Doctrine by striking Iran’s Fordow nuclear site, reshaping the regional balance and aligning closely with Israel’s strategic posture.
In the wake of President Donald Trump’s dramatic authorization of a strike on Iran’s Fordow nuclear facility, Amit Segal, chief political analyst for Israel’s Channel 12 News, spoke with Ben Shapiro and drew parallels to one of Israel’s most defining military doctrines.
In response to Shapiro’s question regarding the significance of President Trump’s strike on the Fordow facility—buried under 90 meters of rock and targeted using advanced aircraft and weaponry—Segal said, “I think it’s the first time the United States of America has adopted the Begin Doctrine. Menachem Begin is the late prime minister of Israel who in 1981 set the rule that there won’t be a nuclear weapon in the Middle East. When Iraq tried to obtain a nuclear weapon, he bombed it.”
“Ronald Reagan, the then president, condemned Begin and even declared a temporary arms embargo. So it’s very, very good to see that President Trump did not follow Reagan’s steps in that matter and actually joined the Begin Doctrine, thus bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities.”
Shapiro noted Iran’s pattern of threats following setbacks, often resulting in missile launches toward Israel, and asked Segal about their significance. Segal responded, “They are trying to cause Israel the most severe damage. That’s what they can do. It’s not that they can escalate against Israel. The only question is the United States. Will they shut down the Hormuz area? I’m not sure. Will they try to kill Americans? I think that President Trump and Secretary Rubio put it in the most blunt words—that it would be considered a declaration of war.”
Segal continued, “We have a case in our history in which a dictator in the Middle East didn’t understand a Republican US president threatening him. It was Saddam Hussein. But Saddam Hussein could explain himself because he really didn’t have weapons of mass destruction. Now, Ayatollah Khamenei knows that there was a reason why President Trump came after him.”
“So it would be extremely stupid for him to try and engage a war against the United States of America because he has only one level to escalate against the US troops. But the US has a lot to escalate. For instance, 85 percent of the Iranian economy is concentrated in one island and one port. For instance, killing Khamenei himself in a bunker in northern Tehran, et cetera.”
“So it would be a very, very stupid thing for Ayatollah Khamenei to do, which is exactly the reason why there is a suspicion he might try to do it.”
Shapiro then asked about the duration and nature of Israel’s current military campaign. “President Trump made very clear this was his mission. His mission is now accomplished, barring some sort of further action from the Iranians,” Shapiro said. “Israel, of course, continues to fly sorties because there are ballistic missiles still flying into Israel every single night.”
Segal replied, “In a week or so, Israel is about to end its pile of targets in Iran, which includes the Iranians’ nuclear facilities—almost 100 percent done—and the ballistic missile program, 75 percent done. Israel eliminated two-thirds of the launchers and, give or take, one-quarter of the ballistic missiles.”
“So once Israel eliminates 30, 40, 50 more launchers, it necessarily means that we can actually go back to give or take a normal routine in Israel.”
Segal addressed Netanyahu’s recent statement: “Prime Minister Netanyahu tonight said that silence will be met with silence. This is a notorious and infamous policy that Israel has taken over the last decades against Hamas and Hezbollah.”
“But now it’s different—because it’s being applied after Israel has already eliminated their launchers and ballistic missiles under a nuclear program. Israel believes Iran cannot sign a deal now. They’ve been humiliated too much. They are too proud. Only an undeclared ceasefire is feasible.”
Shapiro asked how these developments shape Israel’s future, especially after the events of October 7, 2023. Segal framed it as transformative.
“The horrific events of October 7th, 2023 were not the beginning of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, but the Pearl Harbor in the regional war of Israel against Iran. Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas, is not a state leader, but a division commander who rebelled against Tehran’s leadership, invading Israel without notifying Tehran or Beirut.”
“That’s why Israel could overcome Pearl Harbor exactly the way Roosevelt overcame Pearl Harbor. And that’s the reason, in my opinion, why defeating Iran following the defeat of Hezbollah and Syria could lead to new solutions in Gaza.”
Segal elaborated: “It can open a window for a total collapse of Hamas or a total surrender of parts of Hamas. Or for an interim agreement in which Israel secures the perimeter and the Philadelphi Corridor and gains free access to Gaza if terrorist activity resumes.”
“That could wrap up the war with a peace agreement with Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia would get the end of the Gaza war and, in exchange, give a peace agreement with Israel. That’s one feasible scenario.”
Shapiro concluded by asking about Israeli sentiment toward President Trump. “What’s the feeling in Israel about President Trump right now?”
Segal responded, “I used to say that Israel could have been the reddest state in the United States had it joined as the 51st state. Now I think it’s even redder. Kamala Harris shouldn’t register to run here—it’s something like 95 percent to five.”
“I think Israel is so lucky that President Trump won the election. There is no chance on earth that President Harris would have done it. Look at senators like Chuck Schumer who pretend to be friends of Israel but oppose this attack without congressional approval.”
“President Trump is very popular in Israel right now. He didn’t have the October 7th failure to compensate for, like Netanyahu did. But this combination—President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu—turns out to be one of the most powerful alliances between a president and a prime minister. And in this case, it’s for the benefit of the whole region.”
