Findings from the Jewish People’s Policy Institute indicate that 57% of Israelis estimate that after the war in Gaza, Hamas will continue to rule the strip, although possibly under a different name.
A majority of Israelis—57%—believe that Hamas will continue to rule in Gaza even after the current military operation ends, whether under its current name or in a different form. Only 30% of the public believes that Hamas’ rule will be fully dismantled, according to new findings from the *Israeli Society Index* published by the Jewish People Policy Institute (JPPI).
Among Arab citizens of Israel, 41% think Hamas will remain in power as it is, and an additional 27% believe it will continue under a different name. Just 15% expect Hamas will be overthrown. Among Jewish respondents, 53% say Hamas will survive in one form or another, while only 34% believe it will be completely removed from power.
Nearly half of all Israelis (47%) think Israel will maintain control over parts of the Gaza Strip for at least several months. A third (33%) believe Israel will control the entire Gaza Strip—at least for a few years.
A more sensitive question in the survey asked whether Gaza’s Arab residents are likely to voluntarily leave the Strip. A majority—59% of Israelis—believe most Gazans will stay. Only 14% foresee a large-scale departure. However, among right-wing voters, over a quarter believe most Gazans will leave within two to three years, and 42% estimate that more than a quarter of the population will depart. In contrast, 96% of left-wing voters believe most of the population will remain, with only a small number expected to leave.
The survey also asked about the possibility of Jewish resettlement in Gaza. A strong majority of Israelis (63%) do not believe that Israel will establish Jewish communities in the Strip. However, a significant minority (28%) think that Israel will resume settlement activity—either near the border or deeper within Gaza.
Professor Yedidia Stern, President of the Jewish People Policy Institute, commented on the survey results, stating:
“Alongside Netanyahu’s bold Ben-Gurion-style decision to go to war with Iran, he must now make another kind of bold decision—to bring the war in Gaza to an end. This carries a political risk, as the coalition that has supported him for much of his career could unravel. But doing so would open the door to a process of internal social healing.”
Stern added: “The survey results reflect an Israeli society that still supports military action, but is increasingly skeptical about achieving its desired outcomes. Some in the public no longer believe Hamas can be toppled and assume that Israel will remain deeply entrenched in Gaza for an extended period. Among Jewish Israelis, there is growing concern about the moral toll of the war, while Arab citizens express rising feelings of alienation. These findings highlight the need not only to reassess the military strategy, but also to consider the broader political and psychological consequences that are unfolding.”
