Middle East analyst Ehud Yaari cautions that, despite mounting pressure to advance to the second phase of the hostage deal, Hamas remains entangled in deep internal divisions. The organization is currently facing a power struggle and a crisis of identity within its leadership, complicating efforts to move forward.
Ehud Yaari: Hamas Faces Internal Chaos as Hostage Deal Talks Enter Critical Phase
Veteran Israeli commentator Ehud Yaari offered a deep analysis of the ongoing hostage negotiations and the future trajectory of the war during an appearance on Nadav Perry’s podcast.
According to Yaari, Hamas is currently trapped in a “vortex of chaos and confusion,” facing internal power struggles of a scale not seen since its founding in 1987. Despite this dysfunction, he sees a potential—albeit narrow—path for the release of hostages. However, Yaari warned that the second phase of the process, which involves moving from a ceasefire to negotiating the dismantling of Hamas’ armed wing and establishing a new governance structure in Gaza, could become a major obstacle.
“These are two issues that could require an enormous amount of time, with no guarantee that agreements can be reached,” he noted, highlighting the complexity and fragility of the ongoing efforts.
Yaari characterized the moment as one filled with strategic dilemmas. On one side, a political resolution cannot be achieved without some form of agreement from Hamas. On the other, failure to reach such an agreement risks leaving Gaza in a state of devastation, with no viable plan for reconstruction or future stability.
On the broader conflict, Yaari offered a stark conclusion: “We are in the twilight zone of the armed struggle”—a reference to what he sees as the final chapter in a century-long Palestinian conflict. He further predicted that Hamas will “no longer be a militarily significant force in the coming years” once the current phase of the war concludes.
