A new Lazar Research poll for Ma’ariv shows Likud maintaining its lead, but the opposition bloc — even with Naftali Bennett and Gadi Eisenkot entering the race — still cannot secure the 61-seat majority needed to govern without Arab party support.
A fresh Lazar Research survey published Friday by Ma’ariv reveals that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud remains Israel’s largest party, while the opposition struggles to piece together a governing majority without Arab factions.
Coalition vs. Opposition
If elections were held today:
- Current coalition bloc: 50 seats (+1 from last poll)
- Opposition bloc (including new Bennett and Eisenkot parties): 60 seats
- Arab parties: 10 seats
The figures underscore the political deadlock — neither side crossing the crucial 61-seat threshold without relying on Arab party participation.
Party-by-Party Breakdown
In a scenario where Naftali Bennett and Gadi Eisenkot run independent lists:
- Likud – 23
- Bennett’s new party – 21
- Democrats (Yair Golan) – 21
- Eisenkot’s list – 9
- Shas – 9
- Yisrael Beytenu – 9
- United Torah Judaism – 7
- Otzma Yehudit – 7
- Yesh Atid – 6
- United Arab List (Ra’am) – 5
- Hadash-Ta’al – 5
- Blue and White – 5
- Religious Zionist Party – 4
Key Takeaway
The poll signals intensifying fragmentation on the center and center-right, with Bennett emerging as a major player poised to challenge Netanyahu’s dominance — but also risking a split vote that leaves neither bloc able to govern without outside support.
