Five years after deadly Himalayan clashes, PM Modi and President Xi could meet in China under the shadow of Trump’s punishing tariffs, signaling a fragile thaw in India-China ties driven by economic necessity.
A relationship once defined by bloody clashes in the Galwan Valley may be entering a new phase of guarded pragmatism. For the first time since 2018, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will travel to China to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit hosted by President Xi Jinping.
The meeting comes just as Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs—including 50% levies on Indian imports—are straining New Delhi’s ties with Washington, pushing Modi to recalibrate his approach toward Beijing.
The optics are striking: the two leaders whose soldiers fought hand-to-hand combat with rocks and clubs in 2020 could now shake hands, signaling that economic stability is being prioritized over hostility.
Trump’s Pressure, Beijing’s Opening
Trump’s “America First” tariffs, particularly on India’s purchases of Russian oil, have angered New Delhi and “infused urgency” into its pivot toward China, said Manoj Kewalramani of the Takshashila Institution. While not the sole driver, the tariffs accelerated a strategic thaw between Asia’s two giants.
From Beijing’s perspective, said Yun Sun of the Stimson Center, this detente is clearly “started by Trump”: with Washington dialing back support, India is recalibrating.
Not a Reset, But a Rebalance
Analysts stress that India isn’t abandoning the US. “The United States remains India’s most important partner,” Kewalramani noted. “But China is our largest neighbor—we have to live with it.”
India’s balancing act is on full display:
- With China: restarting direct flights, reopening Tibetan pilgrimage sites, and issuing tourist visas again.
- With the Quad: strengthening ties with the US, Japan, and Australia as a counterweight in the Indo-Pacific.
- With Russia: continuing energy ties despite Western disapproval.
The Border Question
Despite warmer trade links—bilateral commerce hit $118 billion last year—the Himalayan frontier remains volatile. Tens of thousands of troops remain deployed, and trust is scarce.
Modi and Xi’s governments recently agreed to 10 points of consensus on border management, including maintaining “peace and tranquility,” but analysts warn previous pledges have unraveled before.
“The test,” said Tanvi Madan of Brookings, “is whether rhetoric translates into de-escalation on the ground.”
The Road Ahead
India-China ties are unlikely to return to brotherhood, but may be entering a more managed rivalry phase: competition will continue, but open conflict may be held at bay.
As Asia Society’s Farwa Aamer put it: “The future will bring perhaps a more stable relationship—where competition isn’t over, but conflict is avoided.”
