A new Maariv poll shows Naftali Bennett’s hypothetical comeback party nearly overtaking Likud, leaving Netanyahu’s coalition far short of the Knesset majority.
Israel’s political map could be on the brink of a dramatic shake-up. A new Maariv poll released Friday reveals that if elections were held today with new parties led by Naftali Bennett and Gadi Eisenkot entering the race, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition would suffer heavy losses—dropping to just 48 seats.
The poll places Likud in first place with 25 seats, but Bennett’s new party makes a stunning debut with 24 seats, positioning itself as a serious challenger.
Other projected results:
- Yisrael Beytenu: 10 seats
- The Democrats: 10 seats
- Shas: 9 seats
- Yesh Atid: 8 seats
- Otzma Yehudit: 7 seats
- United Torah Judaism (UTJ): 7 seats
- Eisenkot’s party: 6 seats
- Hadash-Ta’al: 5 seats
- Ra’am (United Arab List): 5 seats
- Blue and White: 4 seats
Both Balad and Religious Zionism fail to cross the electoral threshold.
When blocs are tallied, the coalition slumps to 48 seats, while the center-left surges to 62—enough to form a government without relying on the Arab factions, who hold 10 seats.
In a second scenario tested by the poll—adding a new party led by former Mossad chief Yossi Cohen—Netanyahu’s coalition drops even further to 47 seats, with the center-left at 59. Cohen’s new faction is projected at four seats, though his political alignment remains unclear.
Seat distribution in that case:
- Likud: 24
- Bennett’s party: 23
- Democrats: 10
- Yisrael Beytenu: 9
- Shas: 9
- Yesh Atid: 8
- Otzma Yehudit: 7
- UTJ: 7
- Eisenkot’s: 5
- Hadash-Ta’al: 5
- Ra’am: 5
- Blue and White: 4
- Cohen’s party: 4
This scenario again leaves Religious Zionism and Balad outside the Knesset.
The numbers underline growing fatigue with Netanyahu’s bloc and the powerful appeal of new centrist challengers—especially Bennett, who could return from political exile to reshape Israel’s political balance.
