Channel 14 shows right-wing dominance while Channel 12 signals opposition surge shaking coalition stability.
Two major polls released Thursday night are painting sharply different portraits of Israel’s political landscape, exposing deep uncertainty over the balance of power ahead of potential elections. According to a survey published by Channel 14, Benjamin Netanyahu and the Likud remain firmly in the lead with 34 seats, positioning the party as the dominant force in the Knesset. The poll places the Joint List at 13 seats, while a party led by Naftali Bennett climbs to 11 mandates.
In the same survey, Shas secures 10 seats, while United Torah Judaism, the Democrats, and the Yashar party headed by Gadi Eisenkot each receive 9 seats. Yisrael Beytenu and Otzma Yehudit are projected at 8 seats apiece, while Yesh Atid drops to 5 and the Religious Zionist Party receives 4. Blue and White fails to cross the electoral threshold in this scenario. Crucially, this poll grants the right-wing bloc a commanding 65-seat majority, enough to comfortably form a government.
In contrast, a separate survey aired by Channel 12 News presents a far more competitive and volatile picture. Likud falls to 27 seats, while Bennett’s “Bennett 2026” list surges dramatically to 21 seats, positioning him as a formidable challenger. The Democrats, led by Yair Golan, receive 11 seats, and Yashar climbs to 10. Shas, Yisrael Beytenu, and Otzma Yehudit each secure 9 mandates, while Yesh Atid and United Torah Judaism each garner 7. Ra’am and Hadash-Ta’al receive 5 seats each. Under this projection, Blue and White, the Religious Zionist Party, the Reservists, and Balad do not pass the threshold.
The bloc breakdown in the Channel 12 poll dramatically reverses the balance of power, granting opposition parties 68 seats compared to 52 for the coalition, with Arab parties contributing 10 seats to the opposition tally. The stark contrast between the two polls underscores the fluidity of Israeli politics, where leadership dynamics, security developments, and voter turnout patterns could rapidly reshape the outcome.
As Israel navigates a complex regional security environment and intense domestic debate, the polling gap highlights a political battlefield that remains wide open, with competing narratives of stability and upheaval vying for dominance.
