After suffering humiliating losses on the battlefield, Iran knew it could not survive the wrath of Trump. Iran begged for a ceasefire. It was essentially a complete surrender. Analysis.
Alex Traiman is the CEO and Jerusalem bureau chief of the Jewish News Syndicate (JNS) and host of “Jerusalem Minute.” A seasoned Israeli journalist, documentary filmmaker and startup consultant, he is an expert on Israeli politics and U.S.-Israel relations. A former NCAA champion fencer and Yeshiva University Sports Hall of Fame member, he made aliyah in 2004, and lives in Jerusalem with his wife and five children.
(JNS) There are some people in Israel criticizing the ceasefire with Iran. Let me state here why I believe they are wrong.
This war would not have been waged without U.S. President Donald Trump in office. Aside from the “green light” and the diplomatic cover, Trump delivered the weapons Israel needed for this campaign.
Without those weapons, Israel could never have pummeled Iran for 12 days. In particular, Israel used heavy 2,000 lb munitions—the very munitions the Biden administration admitted to withholding from Israel.
We know that the Biden administration withheld many other munitions as well.
So, if, after all that, Trump wanted to join and take out the Fordow nuclear reactor from the air, using B-2 bombers and GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators, which Israel does not possess, that was his choice to make. Israel is grateful for the assistance, even though it possessed its own plan B to attack Fordow.
Once the United States entered, even in a limited strike, the rules of the game changed. Iran was no longer fighting only against Israel. Trump warned Iran that retaliation would be met with the full force of the U.S. military.
After suffering humiliating losses on the battlefield, Iran knew it could not survive the wrath of Trump. Iran begged for a ceasefire. It was essentially a complete surrender.
Had Israel gone it alone, there is no doubt that Iran would have kept firing ballistic missile barrages at Israel. Israelis would have been forced into bomb shelters multiple times a day, perhaps for several more weeks. The airport would have remained closed.
This would have stretched Israeli resilience to the extreme.
Meanwhile, Israel accomplished its two primary goals: First, destroying Iran’s nuclear facilities as well as their ability to enrich uranium and develop a nuclear weapon and, second, neutralizing the ballistic missile threat by destroying manufacturing facilities, storehouses and launchers.
Even though Iran still likely has several hundred ballistic missiles, its program has been stopped in its tracks, along with its ability to fire large barrages.
Additionally, Israel had already succeeded in significantly degrading each of Iran’s major terror proxies. Hamas is down to its final fighters in Gaza. Hezbollah’s command and control hierarchy was taken out at the top and mid-levels, and their missile capabilities were degraded by nearly 80 percent.
The Houthis suffered significant losses after over 1,000 U.S. airstrikes and massive Israeli strikes on weapons facilities, Sanaa airport and Hodeidah port.
The unstated goal, of course, and the major remaining question is regime change in Iran. Israel struck hard at regime symbols and infrastructure. Even in the final hours, Israel struck hard at Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps infrastructure and leadership, as well as that of the Basij, domestic (paramilitary) shock troops that terrorize the population. It is up to the Iranians to take that further.
While the Iranian propaganda machine mendaciouslyboasts of major successes, destroying America’s Al Udeid airbase in Qatar and crushing Israeli military facilities and capabilities, Iranians will soon learn the truth: that the Islamic Republic has been weakened and thoroughly humiliated.
It will now be up to the Iranian people to do the rest and take advantage of a golden opportunity to overthrow their regime and take back their country. If and when that happens, it will be the final death blow to the Islamic Republic and can usher in an era of peace.
Just as with the ceasefire declared in Lebanon in November 2024, while Hezbollah was on its heels, Israel has proven that Hezbollah is sufficiently deterred, even if not completely destroyed. Hezbollah did not fire a single shot at Israel during the 12-day War with Iran—an unthinkable occurrence just a year ago.
Further degrading Hezbollah was possible, but likely would have had diminishing returns in terms of time and damage suffered on the Israeli home front. Plus, Israel received a letter of guarantee from the United States that it would permit Israeli strikes if Hezbollah violates the terms of the ceasefire. Israel has regularly struck at Hezbollah even in the wake of the ceasefire.
Now, Israel can turn its attention towards Gaza and conclude the war with Hamas. Hamas has been decimated, and most of Gaza flattened. Israel will focus on getting the remaining hostages home. Focus will then shift towards moving willing Gazans out of the Strip.
Finishing up the Hamas front will culminate a 600-plus day war, and will give Israel a multifront victory.
And while Trump expressed his frustration with both Israel and Iran over their strikes leading up to and past the ceasefire deadline, all attacks stopped within just a few hours. No one will remember if the ceasefire took hold at 7 a.m. or 11 a.m. It doesn’t change the stunning outcome of the war one bit.
Trump will be very happy with his strike on Fordow and the ceasefire he brokered.
Israel should similarly be very satisfied with the ceasefire and very proud of its stunning war accomplishments.
