The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Tianjin delivered little by way of breakthroughs—just photo-ops, careful hedging, and competing narratives from India and China, while Trump, Moscow, and Tokyo watched closely.
The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Tianjin unfolded much as expected: ritual speeches, staged handshakes, and the illusion of unity. For India, it was less about settling disputes than about signalling resilience in a shifting global order.
Photo-Ops for Washington’s Eyes
The images of Modi, Xi, and Putin holding hands were splashed worldwide by Chinese state media, carefully curated to land on President Trump’s desk in Washington. In reality, the choreography served Beijing’s narrative more than New Delhi’s. Modi’s presence offered symbolism, but the summit confirmed one truth: India was a prop on Xi’s stage.
Economics Over Borders
Despite past bloodshed in Galwan (2020), India and China agreed to emphasize economic ties while shelving hard border questions. The demand for a “status quo ante” has evaporated. Expert groups now study “early harvest” deals on limited sections of the Line of Actual Control, though without timelines. For Delhi, disengagement is no longer a precondition for dialogue—it’s trade first, territory later.
Separate Statements, Same Distance
No joint statement followed Modi’s meeting with Xi. Both leaders spoke of “development” and “partnership,” but interpretations diverged. India pitched strategic autonomy and multipolar Asia; Xi countered with multipolar world and harmony, a coded call for hierarchical order under Chinese leadership.
Russia in the Middle
A private 45-minute chat between Modi and Putin in Putin’s limousine hinted at deeper calculations. Trump’s tariffs on Indian oil purchases from Russia and accusations of Delhi funding Moscow’s war machine have complicated India-U.S. relations. But India will not abandon discounted Russian oil—Moscow remains Delhi’s buffer against Beijing, even as Russia courts Pakistan.
India’s Hedge Strategy
India’s moves in Tianjin—and Modi’s stop in Japan beforehand—reflect a deliberate policy of hedging across blocs. Delhi courts the U.S. via the Quad, Moscow for energy security, Beijing for investment, and Tokyo for balance. The cost: no clear breakthroughs, just survival diplomacy in a volatile world where Trump eyes a “grand bargain” with China.
The Domestic Lens
For Indians, China is framed as a “challenge,” not an existential threat. Pakistan still dominates the public imagination as the “real enemy.” This political reality allows Modi to normalize ties with Xi without domestic backlash—even after Galwan.
The End of Chemistry Diplomacy
Modi’s once-celebrated personal rapport with world leaders has proven hollow. His failure to read both Trump’s transactionalism and Xi’s strategic patience has left India reactive, not proactive, in global affairs. As one analyst put it, Tianjin showcased hedging, not leadership.
