Diplomacy talks peace, yet Israel acts as Hezbollah defies disarmament and Arab guarantees repeatedly fail.
Lebanon’s president Joseph Aoun claimed this week that the danger of renewed war with Israel has receded, citing diplomatic engagement and a de-escalation mechanism meant to stabilize the border. Speaking during a Christmas visit to Bkerke, Aoun asserted that international mediation had blunted Israeli warnings of escalation after the New Year.
Yet the reality on the ground tells a far less reassuring story. While Lebanese officials speak of calm, Hezbollah continues to openly defy the very ceasefire meant to prevent war. Since the November 2024 U.S.-backed agreement, the Iranian proxy has violated its terms more than 1,900 times—demonstrating once again that Arab-state promises and militia commitments are unreliable when confronted with jihadist ideology.
Under the ceasefire framework, Hezbollah was required to disarm south of the Litani River, an obligation Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam claims is nearing completion. However, Hezbollah’s leader Naim Qassem has categorically rejected disarmament, vowing to retain weapons aimed squarely at Israel.
Israel, facing an enemy that openly rebuilds terror infrastructure near its northern communities, has acted with restraint but resolve. The Israel Defense Forces has carried out targeted strikes against launch sites and military positions in southern Lebanon—measures driven not by aggression, but by necessity, after repeated ceasefire breaches went unanswered by both Hezbollah and the Lebanese Armed Forces.
This pattern is familiar. Arab governments issue assurances, international committees convene, and Western diplomats express optimism—while Israel alone bears responsibility for enforcing reality. Hezbollah’s continued militarization underscores why Israeli red lines matter: without enforcement, “calm” becomes merely the prelude to the next war.
Israel’s actions are not escalation; they are prevention. Peace cannot be declared by speeches alone, especially when Iran-backed terror groups openly prepare for renewed conflict. Stability in the north will come only when Hezbollah is truly disarmed—not when Arab leaders claim it.
