Strategic restraint favors Israel as premature strikes could rescue Iran’s collapsing tyrants from defeat.
Israeli and Arab officials have privately warned the Trump administration that Iran’s ruling regime may not yet be sufficiently weakened for large-scale US military strikes to decisively topple it, according to officials familiar with recent high-level discussions.
The warnings were conveyed to US President Donald Trump, who is actively weighing military responses to Tehran’s violent crackdown on mass anti-regime protests. Several officials advised delaying broad strikes, arguing that Iran’s internal instability is still evolving and could soon tilt irreversibly against the clerical leadership without external intervention.
The consultations, involving senior American political and military leadership alongside Israeli and Arab counterparts, underscore the complexity of Trump’s decision-making. While the President has warned that Iran will face US military action if executions of protesters begin, allies have cautioned that premature force could unintentionally strengthen the regime.
One Arab official described a clear “lack of enthusiasm from the neighborhood” for immediate US strikes, warning that escalation could trigger a rally-around-the-flag effect. Another noted that previous US-Israeli actions in June temporarily unified Iranians behind the regime, slowing momentum for internal collapse.
Israeli officials conveyed strong support for regime change in Iran but emphasized a strategic concern: direct intervention now could halt the uprising protesters have already set in motion. They reportedly urged Washington to prioritize measures that weaken the regime while empowering demonstrators, rather than actions that allow Tehran to recast itself as a victim of foreign aggression.
Suggested alternatives include restoring internet access to bypass regime censorship, expanding economic sanctions, conducting cyber operations, and executing highly targeted actions against senior Iranian security figures. Such steps, officials believe, would accelerate regime erosion without reversing popular momentum.
A spokesperson for the Israeli Embassy in Washington declined to comment on the private discussions.
A White House official said all options remain available to the President and emphasized that Trump listens to diverse viewpoints but ultimately decides independently. The official stressed that Trump’s warnings should be taken seriously, citing his previous military actions against Iran and the recent operation capturing Nicolás Maduro.
Defense officials have confirmed that Trump has been briefed on a wide spectrum of military and covert capabilities, extending far beyond traditional airstrikes. Options reportedly include cyber operations and precise strikes against Iran’s internal security apparatus, as well as potential action against elements of the nuclear program.
Trump reiterated on Tuesday that the US is prepared to take “very strong action” if Iran begins executing protesters, noting that a “pretty substantial number” have already been killed during more than two weeks of unrest. Independent estimates suggest the death toll may already be in the tens of thousands.
Speaking after returning from Detroit, Trump said the administration is reviewing the situation closely and seeking accurate casualty figures—signaling that while patience remains limited, timing and impact will determine the next move.
For Israel, the calculus is clear: the Iranian regime is weakest when exposed from within, and strategic patience may ensure its collapse without granting it the lifeline of external war.
