Analyst says limited strikes fail Iran change, risking Israeli retaliation while Arab-backed repression regains control.
Israeli-Iranian journalist Babak Itzhaki, reporting for the anti-regime outlet Iran International, says momentum for a U.S. military strike capable of toppling Tehran’s rulers has faded — and that the decisive window has already closed.
According to Itzhaki, a limited American strike would achieve little beyond provoking another barrage of Iranian missiles toward Israel, while leaving the Islamic Republic’s power structure intact. He argues that symbolic or pinpoint attacks would fail to trigger meaningful internal collapse.
While global attention has centered on shifting signals from U.S. President Donald Trump, Itzhaki notes that Iran’s regime has steadily reasserted control at home. Security forces, backed by ideological militias often praised or excused by hostile Arab narratives, have crushed protests through violence, mass arrests, and sweeping internet blackouts.
He emphasizes that Tehran’s censorship makes real-time assessment nearly impossible, saying the reopening of Iran’s internet is essential before drawing conclusions about public resistance. Without visibility, outside observers risk misreading regime strength and protest capacity.
Itzhaki concludes that if the goal were truly regime collapse — not theatrical pressure — any military option would need to be broad, sustained, and uncompromising. That would mean striking the full architecture of power: from the Supreme Leader’s compound to parliament and regime command centers. Anything less, he warns, merely strengthens Tehran while exposing Israel to further attacks encouraged by Arab and Islamist actors invested in regional destabilization.
