Inside the intelligence that triggered Israel’s strike on Iran: Israeli defense officials say, “We are at the point of no return.”
Yaakov Lappin is an Israel-based military affairs correspondent and analyst. He is the in-house analyst at the Miryam Institute; a research associate at the Alma Research and Education Center; and a research associate at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University. He is a frequent guest commentator on international television news networks, including Sky News and i24 News. Lappin is the author of Virtual Caliphate: Exposing the Islamist State on the Internet. Follow him at: www.patreon.com/yaakovlappin.
(JNS) Following a directive from Israel’s political echelon, the Israel Defense Forces launched what it described as a preemptive, precise and combined offensive codenamed “Operation Rising Lion” in the early hours of Friday, targeting Iran’s nuclear program and other military targets across the Islamic Republic, as well as senior Iranian military and Islamic Republican Guards Corps commanders.
The decision was, according to a defense official, signed off on by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz, in coordination with IDF Chief of Staff, Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, on Monday, June 9. It marked the culmination of years of warnings and intelligence gathering, which, according to military officials, revealed that the Iranian regime had reached a point of no return in its quest for nuclear bombs.
In recent months, intelligence gathered by Israel contained evidence of the Iranian regime’s efforts to produce thousands of kilograms of enriched uranium, alongside decentralized and fortified enrichment underground facilities. This would enable the Iranian regime to enrich uranium to military-grade levels and obtain a nuclear weapon within a short period of time, according to Israeli defense officials.
Additionally, in recent years, and more so since the beginning of the war, concrete progress has been identified in the Iranian regime’s efforts to produce weapons components adapted for a nuclear bomb.
The IDF stated that the Iranian regime had been advancing a secret plan for the technological advancement of all parts of the development of a nuclear weapon, in a program involving senior nuclear scientists working secretly.
“In recent months, this program has accelerated significantly, bringing the regime significantly closer to obtaining a nuclear weapon,” the military stated.
A military official, discussing the operation, elaborated on the specific intelligence that made the preemptive strike a necessity at this time.
“We have been closely following developments in Iran for years,” said the official. “Recently, we identified that the Iranian regime significantly advanced towards obtaining a nuclear weapon, and its capability to act in a concrete way against us.”
He detailed three critical components of the threat that had converged. The first, he explained, was the “nuclear trigger,” adding, “The Iranian regime is advancing towards obtaining a nuclear weapon. In recent months, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) published a number of reports that detail a concerning trend of the advancement of the Iranian nuclear project that goes beyond civilian usage. Yesterday, the IAEA Board of Governors declared for the first time in 20 years that the Iranian regime is blatantly violating nuclear agreements.”
Crucially, the military official revealed for the first time that this went far beyond enrichment. “We are exposing for the first time that the Iranian regime has been advancing a secret program to assemble a nuclear weapon. In the framework of this plan, nuclear scientists and senior officials in Iran have been working to secretly develop all components needed for developing a nuclear weapon—explosive materials, the core (enriched uranium) and neutron source,” he stated.
A neutron source is a device placed at the core of a nuclear weapon, which, upon detonation, releases a burst of neutrons to initiate the rapid nuclear chain reaction required for an explosion. According to the official, the Iranian regime made a decision to advance this secret assembly, having already accumulated enough fissile material “for 15 nuclear bombs within days.”
The second component of the Iranian threat to Israel, the official noted, was “ballistic missiles.” He said, “The Iranian regime has thousands of ballistic missiles, which it plans to double, and to triple, with the understanding that this is an effective threat against Israel. We are talking about a number of missiles that, even without a nuclear weapon, represents an existential threat.”
The third component was Iran’s ongoing effort in the “distribution of weapons and arms to regional proxies,” with Israel identifying attempts by the regime to arm its proxies across the Middle East with ammunition to be used against Israel. These elements, combined with concrete intelligence obtained over the years of a plan developed by senior Iranian officials with Hezbollah and Hamas to destroy Israel, created what the official termed an immediate and imminent existential threat.
IDF Spokesperson Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin said in a separate English announcement on Friday,“Over the past few months, intelligence has shown that Iran is closer than ever to obtaining a nuclear weapon. This morning the IDF began preemptive and precise strikes targeting the Iranian nuclear program in order to prevent the Iranian regime’s ability to build a nuclear bomb in the immediate time frame. We have no choice. We are operating against an imminent and existential threat. We cannot allow the Iranian regime to obtain a nuclear weapon that would be a danger to Israel and the entire world.”
The military official stressed that Israel has repeatedly warned the world about the threat.
“We have warned the world for many years,” he said, adding, “We have warned our partners across the world, publicly and privately speaking about Iran advancing, saying this is a global problem, not just an Israeli problem, if the Iranian regime has a nuclear bomb. And we understand if we don’t act now, if we don’t operate now, we’ll get to the point of no return.”
He also addressed Iran’s dual-track strategy of deception: “We understand, and our intelligence shows us that Iran is promoting this nuclear plan right now, in recent months, while the world thinks they are negotiating, at the same time they are promoting a nuclear bomb. As I said before, they have enough enriched materials for 15 nuclear bombs. They are advancing also in enrichment, but also in the weapons group. These are two places that we just cannot accept. A regime that said that their mission is to destroy us with a nuclear bomb and that is secretly getting to that nuclear bomb is something we cannot accept, and we must stop it.”
Discussing Israel’s security partnerships, the official stated, “We’ve had great relationships since day one of this war with many of our partners. Leading the way was the U.S. military, saving lives. That’s not an overstatement…. As always, we have great relations with our partners.”
The Commander of the IDF Home Front Command, Maj. Gen. Rafi Milo, urged the public to prepare for widespread alerts. “During this campaign, we anticipate widespread alerts. It is crucial that you take shelter in the best way possible, whether in your private home or in public spaces—preferably in a safe room, shelter, or protected space approved by the Home Front Command. If there are no protected spaces near you, you must enter a stairway or an interior room.”
He added, “Every civilian must be aware of the most protected space in their area. When an alert is received, you must enter the protected space and remain there until further notice. You must avoid unnecessary movement outside and refrain from driving on the road. There are challenging and complicated days ahead of us. We are strong together and prepared to defend the State of Israel.”
In its initial announcement, the IDF stated that “a short while ago, dozens of IAF [Israeli Air Force] jets completed the first stage that included strikes on dozens of military targets, including nuclear targets in different areas of Iran.”
The announcement noted, “Today, Iran is closer than ever to obtaining a nuclear weapon. Weapons of mass destruction in the hands of the Iranian regime are an existential threat to the State of Israel and a significant threat to the wider world. The State of Israel will not allow a regime whose objective is to destroy the State of Israel to obtain weapons of mass destruction”.
The statement added that for “years, the Iranian regime has been waging a direct and indirect campaign of terror against the State of Israel, by funding and directing terrorist activities via its proxies across the Middle East, while advancing toward obtaining a nuclear weapon.
The Iranian regime is at the head of the axis responsible for all terrorist attacks against the State of Israel since the beginning of the Swords of Iron War, including by arming and funding the Hamas terror organization, which was responsible for the Oct. 7, 2023, massacre. During the Swords of Iron War, Iran even directly attacked Israel twice, firing hundreds of missiles toward the State of Israel.”
In a direct address to the Israeli public, Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, placed the operation in a historic context. “Civilians of Israel, these are decisive days, we are currently at the start of a new phase in the operation to secure our future. The IDF began Operation ‘Rising Lion’ tonight, in order to strategically strike the threats from the Iranian regime against the State of Israel. We are amidst a historic campaign unlike any other. This is a critical operation to prevent an existential threat, by an enemy who is intent on destroying us,” he declared.
Zamir continued, “We cannot afford to wait for another time to operate, we have no other choice. Recent and past events of history have taught us that when the enemy is attempting to destroy us, we must not turn a blind eye. As such, we need to fight for our existence; freedom is given to those willing to fight for it.”
He added, “I warn that anyone who tries to challenge us will pay a heavy price. We are entering this operation together with one goal—to secure a safer future for the State of Israel and its civilians; in a unified effort and faith, we will win.”
The largest state in the region
Iran, the largest Middle Eastern state, spans an area of 1,648,195 square kilometers and is located approximately 1,500 kilometers from Israel.
Following the Islamic Revolution in 1979 and the establishment of the fundamentalist Shi’ite Ayatollah regime in 1980, the Islamic defined its core missions: To defend the regime and Iran as a power, to fulfill the ideological objectives of the internal system responsible for maintaining order in Iran, and to export the revolution and its goals to its proxies throughout the Middle East.
Iran’s political leadership is headed by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and includes several bodies: The Office of the Supreme Leader, Khamenei, the Judiciary, the Presidency, Government ministries, and the key Supreme National Security Council.
The Council operates in a similar to Israel’s security cabinet, convening regularly under the presidency, and sometimes under the Supreme Leader Khamenei, It is responsible for coordinating the various security bodies and for additional strategic work.
Senior regime officials and security commanders reside in the Iranian capital of Tehran, where some 15 million people live.
Over the years, several mass protests have erupted in response to the Iranian regime’s actions, mostly driven by economic and political opposition..
Following the 2022 death in custody of a young Kurdish woman who was arrested for improperly wearing the hijab, protests involving thousands of demonstrators against the regime erupted, and lasted for some four months – the longest since the establishment of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
As a result of the protest, 525 civilians were killed, and 19,571 civilians were arrested.
The Iranian security apparatus
The Iranian security system includes two armies: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Iranian Army. The IRGC was established to protect the interests of the new regime, after, in the 1970s, the Iranian Army served the former ousted regime.
At the end of the Iran-Iraq War in 1988, Iran concluded that there was a clear need for two separate armies: The Iranian Army – responsible for the defense of the country, and the IRGC – tasked with promoting the interests and survival of the fundamentalist Iranian regime domestically and in the Middle East by using force against regime opponents and countries across the region.
The General Staff of the Armed Forces manages and synchronizes the various security organizations during routine times. A body called Emergency Headquarters commands the Iranian armed forces during emergencies. Iran’s security system is subordinate to the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei.
