Trump has created a ‘win-win’ situation, Either the Iranians surrender, “or he acts,” the source says
Most senior Israelis familiar with the matter believe that the US will enter the war, mainly because the Iranians are giving no indications of a willingness to accept the conditions the US and Europe are demanding for a ceasefire, unnamed senior Israeli officials tell Channel 12 and Kan news this evening. Trump has said that Iran cannot have nuclear weapons and cannot have a uranium enrichment capacity.
“Trump has created a ‘win-win’ situation,” Channel 12 quotes an Israeli source familiar with the Israeli-US contacts as saying. Either the Iranians surrender, “or he acts,” the source says. “He’s given a timeframe of up to two weeks [for diplomacy] and there is no indication whatsoever that the Iranians are using this ladder. Quite the reverse. They are kicking it in a way that prevents any possibility of using it. Our assessment is that Trump will not blink in the end.”
Channel 12 also cites what it says is material from Israeli security consultations that explains why earlier talk of a conflict lasting for just a few days has now seen the war continuing into its second week, with the IDF Chief Eyal Zamir warning of prolonged conflict.
As the conflict has progressed, the report says, “new operational opportunities have arisen,” based on intelligence material that has enabled breakthroughs not previously available, including the possible widening of targets, as evidenced by the latest targeted strikes on key Iranian military figures.
The war is expected to continue through the coming week — “offense and defense,” the Channel 12 report says. But toward the end of the week, a “strategic assessment” consultation will be held on next steps. Decisions will be affected by the American position, the IDF’s progress in the conflict, Iran’s responses, and other factors.
It quotes a senior Israeli diplomatic source saying that the Isfahan nuclear site was destroyed today, following what it says was the destruction of the Natanz facility and attacks on other targets. “Only Fodor remains” among key Iranian nuclear weapons-related facilities.
Ultimately, the goal is to bring Iran to the negotiating table, the source is cited saying — echoing Israel’s official war goals, which do not provide for the complete military destruction of Iran’s rogue nuclear weapons program by the military, but rather for Iran to itself agree to abandon the program and destroy its facilities or for the US to oversee their destruction.
“We won’t continue [the military campaign] without a clear purpose. We won’t tempt fate. We are not pushing for regime change in Tehran,” it quotes the source as saying.
The correct exit point will be when the nuclear and ballistic missile threat has been averted, Channel 12 cites the source saying, and Israel is getting closer to that point.
Kan’s source is quoted offering a more bleak assessment, saying that if the US does not join the conflict, and Iran decides to use all the military means at its disposal, “we are likely to get drawn into a lengthy conflict.”
The report says Israel assesses that Iran will drag Israel into a war of attrition, with an exchange of blows continuing for a long time.
“The continuation of the campaign and its result depend [in part] on Israel, but mainly on President Trump,” Kan’s source is cited as saying.
